Iraq: American influence has so dwindled over the last several months

(October 21, 2010)


Initially, United States officials encouraged the Iraqis to form a government quickly. Recently U.S. started pushing for a slowdown after it became apparent that a political organization led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr was poised to play a major role.

The U.S. clearly hopes to stall the formation of a new government long enough for the deal unravel between al-Maliki and al-Sadr, whose hardline Shiite followers are close to Iran. But the days of the U.S. calling the shots in Iraq are long over - largely because of President Obama's intent to scale back America's presence more than seven years after the invasion which ousted Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led regime.

That's led Iraqi leaders to reach out to Mideast neighbors for advice and support on brokering a new government. Leaders from rival political coalitions in the last several months have been to Iran, Jordan, Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia on official visits.

On Thursday, al-Maliki was in Ankara to meet with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In a development that may have assured him a second term, al-Maliki this month won al-Sadr's backing. And this week, top Iranian officials gave al-Maliki their clearest nod of support yet during his trip to Tehran. It is Iraq's newly warmed alliance with Iran that worries the United States. According to Sunni lawmaker Osama al-Nujaifi., "there is U.S. influence in the political process and forming of the government, but less so than before. As they (the Americans) begin to withdraw their military, the Iranians are taking advantage of the empty space, and are ready to fill the vacuum."

In Cairo this week, al-Maliki predicted a new government will be formed soon. A senior Iraqi government official said that will happen regardless of whether the U.S. blesses it, though he acknowledged that Baghdad would be weak without American support. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the discussions.